Development chances high for tropical disturbance in Gulf

Pat Wise
October 7, 2018

Showers, unrelated to this tropical system, will be on an isolated basis between this weekend and Tuesday. Hurricane strength is maximum sustained winds of 74 miles per hour.

Before reaching the Gulf on Monday, the disturbed weather is expected to to become a tropical depression on Sunday and and tropical storm Michael on Sunday night.

UPDATE 2:10 p.m.: The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances that a tropical system will form in the Gulf of Mexico to 70 percent. Meanwhile, a storm near the Yucatan Peninsula is worth watching for the Gulf Coast. The sea surface temperatures are also quite warm, potentially further aiding in the system's development. Tropical Storm Michael's path then leads quickly north toward the U.S. Gulf Coast, with landfall somewhere between the MS coast and the Florida panhandle - with models now leaning toward the Florida panhandle.

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Forecast mapping as of Thursday, however, showed the system missing the Cayman Islands and moving toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Atmospheric conditions there are forecast to become more favorable for a tropical depression to form.

It's time to really start paying attention to the disturbance in the western Caribbean as most models are showing development with a track into the Gulf next week.

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