International Monetary Fund saves forecast of Ukraine's GDP growth at rate of 3.2 percent

Jeannie Matthews
April 17, 2018

The fund on April 17 left its forecasts for global growth this year and next at the 3.9% it estimated in January and raised its outlook for the United States as Republican tax cuts take effect.

Further, the IMF's WEO report pointed out that India has made progress on structural reforms in the recent past, "including through the implementation of the goods and services tax, which will help reduce internal barriers to trade, increase efficiency, and improve tax compliance".

This is the highest share of countries experiencing a year-over-year growth pickup since 2010.

The 2017 recapitalisation plan for major public sector banks will "improve the banking sector's ability to support growth", the report said. The computer simulations, he said, showed a "fairly substantial" impact from tariffs of that magnitude.

In mid-March, the International Monetary Fund said that although Romania's economy is growing strongly and the financial sector is improving, growth will turn increasingly fragile in the absence of policy changes. Investors have already endured stomach-churning swings this year as markets have wildly in response to the perceived likelihood of a trade conflict, especially resulting from actions and statements by the Trump administration.

"The first shots in a potential trade war have now been fired", IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld said in a foreword to the fund's outlook, reiterating IMF's warning earlier this month that the global trading order is in danger of being "torn apart".

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There aren't "going to be any winners coming out of a trade war".

"Business confidence is likely to gradually firm up with the change in the political leadership, but growth prospects remain weighed down by structural bottlenecks", the global lender said in its latest World Economic Outlook published in Washington.

China is expected to grow respectively at 6.6 and 6.4 per cent in the two years. The United States has threatened to slap tariffs on as much as $150 billion in Chinese goods, while Beijing has vowed to retaliate in kind. Trump has, in turn, ordered the U.S. trade representative to consider targeting up to an additional $100 billion in Chinese imports.

The IMF said, two-thirds of countries accounting for about three-fourths of global output experienced faster growth in 2017 than in the previous year. That could lead to debtors getting into difficulty with repayments as interest rates rise from the post-financial crisis lows.

He also calls the slightly slower growth in Canada unsurprising.

Ballooning debt in both India and China has been a top concern for the International Monetary Fund in recent years. Financial markets have been choppy this year, with USA stocks down slightly after a strong performance in 2017.

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