At 97 percent, normal monsoon this year, says IMD

Erika Holt
April 16, 2018

The 2017 southwest monsoon season saw below-normal rainfall at 95 percent of the LPA, against the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast of normal rainfall at 98 percent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus 4 percent.

IMD's forecast of 97% rainfall comes with a model error of (plus-minus) 5%.

Earlier this month, private weather forecasting agency Skymet had also predicted normal Monsoon this year. The MET department said that monsoon will be 97 per cent of long period average, which is normal for the season.

India's weather office defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 cms for the entire four-month season beginning June.

A normal monsoon will not only aid agriculture growth but could have a positive impact on the overall rural economy.

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As the extreme sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans particularly ENSO conditions over the Pacific (El Nino or La Nina) are known to have strong influence on the Indian summer monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the sea surface conditions over the Pacific and Indian oceans.

The IMD issues its first monsoon forecast in April and updates it in June.

A figure between 96 to 104 percent is considered normal monsson.

The forecast based on the MMCFS suggests that the monsoon rainfall during the 2018 monsoon season (June to September) averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 99% ± 5% of the Long Period Average (LPA).

According to IMD, there is 42 per cent possibility of normal rainfall and 12 per cent possibility of above normal rainfall - it means there are good chances of normal rainfall in the country.

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